Retailers with Online and Physical Storefronts to See 28 Percent Higher Conversion Online; One Percent of Product SKUs to Drive 70 Percent of Online Sales; Voice-Assisted Shopping on the Rise
SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today released its online
shopping predictions for the 2018 holiday season (Nov. 1 through
Dec. 31) powered by Adobe Sensei. Based on Adobe Analytics data, Adobe
predicts that U.S. online sales will increase 14.8 percent, totaling
$124.1 billion, while offline retail spending is expected to increase a
modest 2.7 percent*. Cyber Monday will set a new record as the largest-
and fastest-growing online shopping day of the year with $7.7 billion in
sales, a 17.6 percent increase year over year (YoY). Online sales
between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. Pacific Time on Cyber Monday are expected to
drive more revenue than an average full day in 2018, with conversions
hitting the highest rate of the year, 7.3 percent, during these golden
hours of online retail.
Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to increase by 16.5 percent,
generating $3.3 billion. Nearly one out of five dollars this holiday
season will be spent between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday,
generating $23.4 billion or 19 percent of total online sales. One extra
calendar day between Cyber Monday and Christmas Day will give retailers
a $284 million boost in sales. A record number of days will hit new
revenue milestones, with 36 days surpassing $2 billion compared to just
22 days in 2017. Most anticipated gifts include 4K TVs, retro video
games and consoles, as well as toys like Pomsies, Grumblies and Fortnite
Monopoly.
“As online shopping surges with another record-breaking holiday season,
the retailers with compelling websites coupled with physical store
locations will have the advantage,” said John Copeland, head of
Marketing and Customer Insights at Adobe. “Many shoppers want to
interact with retailers’ products and the brand in-store, and the
ability to pick up online orders in-store within a matter of hours can’t
be underestimated.”
Retailers with online and physical footprints are expected to see 28
percent higher conversion online in comparison to retailers lacking a
traditional storefront. Adobe Analytics data anticipates shoppers
increasingly buying online and picking up items in-store (BOPIS) during
the holiday season. BOPIS has increased 119 percent since January 2018
across all retailers and over 250 percent for large retailers**. A
survey of over 1,000 U.S. consumers shows nearly half (47 percent)
expect to browse in-store for a product they intend to buy online later,
jumping to 58 percent among millennials.
Additional predictions include:
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Top-selling products: Adobe predicts one percent of SKUs will
drive a record 70 percent of sales during the holiday season, 30
percent more than during the rest of the year. 4K TVs, as well as
retro video consoles and games such as Tekken 3, Ridge Racer Type 4
and Final Fantasy VII, are expected to perform well for the second
consecutive year. Top toys include Fingerlings, Fortnite Monopoly,
Grumblies, Hatchimal Hatchibabies, Jurassic World Jeep Wrangler, LEGO
Harry Potter Hogwarts Great Hall set, and Pomsies.
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Best days for deals: Black Friday reigns supreme for discounts
on electronics, including tablets (discounted at 33 percent), TVs (22
percent) and computers (16 percent). On the Sunday before Cyber
Monday, shoppers will see the best deals on apparel (22 percent),
appliances (18 percent) and jewelry (five percent). Cyber Monday will
see the largest discounts on toys (19 percent), Giving Tuesday for
furniture and bedding (14 percent) and Thanksgiving for sporting goods
(13 percent).
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The mobile revenue opportunity: Smartphones continue to gain
share as consumers’ preferred devices for online shopping,
representing 48.3 percent of visits and 27.2 percent of revenue.
Mobile revenue is up 11.6 percent YoY. Yet, completed cart orders
happen over 20 percent less on smartphones than desktop, as a result
of abandonment from sub-optimal checkout experiences. Closing this gap
equates to $9 billion in mobile sales. Tablets are on the decline,
making up 8.8 percent of visits (down 30 percent in four years) and
just 9.6 percent of sales. Consumers using mobile apps will spend more
time browsing and complete sales two times more often than on the web.
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Emerging shopping trends: Voice-assisted shopping is on the
rise, with 21 percent of consumers reporting they are planning to
reorder frequently-purchased items and 17 percent placing one-time
orders for in-store pickup using their voice activated devices. Adobe
expects holiday shoppers to ship and return purchases more often
compared to the rest of the year (5 and 18 percent more respectively),
and to shop more for experiences like cruises and hotels on Cyber
Monday. More consumers will stay home on Thanksgiving Day. Sixty
percent report they won’t shop in stores on Thanksgiving Day, up from
40 percent in 2016.
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Top revenue-driving marketing channels: Retailers will be able
to capitalize on loyal customers that go directly to their website to
make a purchase, with revenue per visit (RPV) rising the most at 36
percent. Search has the second highest RPV growth at 23 percent,
followed by helper sites like RetailMeNot (15 percent) and email at 8
percent.
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Social losing value for retailers: Social referral traffic will
generate 11 percent less RPV compared to Q4 2016. It is the only
marketing channel to see a decline in RPV, despite the increase in
referral traffic coming from social. Adobe attributes this to
consumers’ weakening trust in social networks. Shoppers are also
expected to consult social media sites 25 percent less for gift ideas
this year.
Methodology
Adobe leverages Adobe Sensei, Adobe’s artificial intelligence and
machine learning technology, to identify retail insights from trillions
of data points that flow through Adobe Analytics and Magento Commerce
Cloud, part of Adobe Experience Cloud. Adobe Analytics analyzes one
trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 55 million SKUs and 80 of the
largest 100 U.S. web retailers*** – more than any other technology
company.
Only Adobe’s analysis spans large, medium and small retailers across
over 50 merchandise categories, powered by Magento Commerce Cloud, to
provide the industry’s most accurate view of online shopping in the U.S.
Adobe Experience Cloud manages more than 200 trillion data transactions
annually. Companion research is based on a survey of over 1,000 U.S.
consumers in October 2018.
Helpful Links
About Adobe
Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For more
information, visit www.adobe.com.
*Based on NRF’s
2018 overall retail sales forecast; assumes overall retail grows at
the midpoint of the NRF’s range of growth forecasts (4.55 percent)
**Large retailers defined as being among the top 25% of retailers
***Based on the top 100 retailers in the Internet
Retailer 2018 top 500 eGuide
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other countries. All other trademarks are the property of their
respective owners.
Adobe
Melissa Chanslor, 408-832-5489
Chanslor@adobe.com
or
Adobe
Kevin Fu, 415-832-2266
kfu@adobe.com